Green says the U.S. will "regret" being on the sidelines of two major multilateral agreements. He says this will bring two benefits to China: "First, a narrative in the region will make China the new leader with the most influence on trade and the implementation of rules. And the second is that it will reduce trade barriers with China at a time when the U.S. is doing nothing to reduce trade barriers with the U.S. The agreement marks an important turning point in U.S. trade policy and the types of free trade agreements that the U.S. has generally supported. Instead of reducing tariffs to allow the flow of goods and services to meet market demand, this agreement leaves a record level of tariffs and forces China to buy some products worth $US 200 billion in two years. But M. Trump has already passed the deadline for a new deal after the November election and there is deep skepticism about the prospect of the two countries reaching a new deal in the near future. A first pact, which will ease tensions during an election year, follows months of escalating tariffs and a trade war that seemed to never stop. But China`s imports of covered goods from the rest of the world are 20% higher in 2020 than in 2017 (Figure 1, Panel b).
While the pandemic has affected demand, China`s total imports have grown better in 2020 than imports arriving in the rest of the world, according to data from the World Trade Monitor. One conclusion of the data is obvious. Americans suffered when China`s retaliation devastated U.S. exports. Trump`s tariff hike has raised prices for U.S. consumers and costs for U.S. businesses. Its politically motivated purchase commitments may have created more problems than they have been solved. After the election, the US will need a new approach to solving its trade problems with China. Assessing progress towards the Phase 1 objectives for merchandise trade requires information from both U.S. export statistics and Chinese import statistics, given that Chapter 6, Article 6.2.6 of the agreement provides that "official Chinese trade data and official U.S.
trade data shall be used to determine whether this chapter has been implemented." One of the implications is that there are two sets of monthly data to track (Chinese imports and US exports). A second is that there are two different annual and therefore monthly targets, with the base level of Chinese imports for 2017 deviating from the base level of US exports in 2017. Finally, the products covered by the type-approval obligations are listed in the Appendix to the Agreement annexed to Annex 6.1, at level 4, 6, 8 or 10 digits; This data is then classified in U.S. or Chinese trade statistics for 2017 and 2020. Starting with our October 26, 2020 report, we included the U.S. export product 8800 (in addition to 8802, aircraft) in the "covered manufacturing" and the total and displaced quantity of the "uncovered" category. The deal was attacked by prominent Democrats, including Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, who criticized the deal because it was not about China`s state-owned enterprises and industrial subsidies. He suggested that President Xi was privately laughing at the United States and that China "brought President Trump to the cleaners." The Heads of State and Government statement states that the agreement "shows our strong commitment to support economic recovery, inclusive development, job creation and the strengthening of regional supply chains, as well as our support for an open, inclusive and rules-based trade and investment agreement". . .